Alaska And Mississippi: The Two Senate Races Still Open

Where The Two Races Stand

Two Senate races were still uncalled on Wednesday night, and neither one decides who controls the chamber. NBC News has projected that Democrats will hold the Senate majority in January, with 54 seats in its count and Alaska and Mississippi still open. Between them, the two races will leave Democrats with 54, 55 or 56 seats.

In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by 626 votes, 102,701 to 102,075, in the Division of Elections' count. In Mississippi, Democrat Scott Colom leads Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith by 1,138 votes, 464,926 to 463,788, in NBC's count Wednesday evening, with an estimated 95.6% of the expected vote in. Each race turns on rules most voters never think about: in Alaska, how ranked-choice ballots are tabulated, and in Mississippi, what happens when a statewide race is this close and state law provides no automatic recount.

Alaska Goes To A Ranked-Choice Count

Alaska elects its senators by ranked choice. Peltola holds 48.02% of first choices and Sullivan 47.73%, with Republican Gerald Heikes at 2.25% and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. at 1.68%, so no one is near a majority. If that holds when counting ends, the Division of Elections tabulates voters' later choices in Juneau after the last ballots are counted, on the 15th day after the election. This year that is Nov. 18.

Many ballots remain. The Division said Wednesday morning that about 20,000 early votes were still uncounted and that as many as 40,000 absentee ballots may still need to be added. Absentee ballots mailed within the United States count if they are postmarked by Election Day and arrive by Nov. 13; ballots from overseas have until Nov. 18. The state's target date to certify the election is Nov. 25.

An early read of the ballot data points to a finish closer than the first-choice count. An Alaska Beacon analysis of the state's partial cast vote record found that eliminating the two trailing candidates would give Sullivan 2,728 more votes and Peltola 1,868, a net gain of 860 for Sullivan, more than Peltola's current lead. The record leaves out about 11,000 ballots, many from rural precincts without ballot scanners that tend to favor Peltola, along with every ballot still to be counted.

Alaska voters were also deciding, on the same ballot, whether to keep ranked choice at all. The repeal measure was failing Wednesday, 105,774 votes to 98,218, two years after a first repeal fell short by 743 votes in a recount. Trump urged a yes vote on repeal.

The Second Sullivan

The ballot listed two Sullivans. Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a retired teacher from Petersburg, appeared with no party label. In June, the state's elections director, Carol Beecher, found that he had filed "with a purpose to confuse or mislead," and Alaska's courts reversed her. He has 3,583 votes. Heikes, the fourth candidate, has 4,821 and reached the general election after the fourth-place finisher in the primary, a Democrat, dropped out.

In late October, The New York Times reported that a former Peltola aide said a Democratic operative from outside Alaska had searched for people named Dan Sullivan to challenge the senator; the aide later sought to retract her comments. Peltola's campaign and the Democratic committee have denied any involvement, and Dan J. Sullivan has said he ran on his own. Heikes has said he, too, was recruited from outside the state, and political groups spent more than $2 million on ads to boost him, including one heavily funded by the progressive Sixteen Thirty Fund. Recruiting spoiler candidates is generally legal in Alaska, and both parties' allies spent on it this year.

The fight reached the federal government. The Justice Department has opened a criminal investigation and issued more than 100 subpoenas and multiple target letters, including one to the Democratic attorney Marc Elias, according to people briefed on the probe. A federal judge threw out a separate Justice Department lawsuit, ordered by President Trump, that sought to block certification of the race, ruling that the department lacked standing; the department has appealed. Trump posted repeatedly about the second Sullivan through Election Day, and on election night he told The New York Times that he would not challenge the result.

The ballot data so far shows little sign that voters mistook one Sullivan for the other. In the Beacon's analysis, more of Dan J. Sullivan's voters ranked Peltola second than ranked the senator.

Mississippi's Margin And Its Missing Recount

The Mississippi lead swung all day. Colom led by 28 votes shortly after midnight, by 43 at 3 a.m. and by 65 at 3 p.m., before NBC's count put him 1,138 ahead at 6:52 p.m. Eastern. About 45,000 votes remain by NBC's estimate, and Hyde-Smith would need about 50.2% of them to catch up. Ty Pinkins, an independent, has 19,934.

In Mississippi, the candidate with the most votes wins a federal general election, with no runoff. Mail ballots postmarked by Election Day count if they reach the circuit clerk by 5 p.m. Nov. 10, under a grace period the Supreme Court upheld 5 to 4 in June in a challenge to this very law. Voters who cast affidavit ballots because they lacked photo identification have until the same day to show it. Secretary of State Michael Watson said about 3,600 mail ballots are outstanding, along with an unknown number of affidavit ballots. Counties send their returns to the state by Nov. 13, and the secretary of state declares the results Dec. 3.

Mississippi has no automatic recount, and a candidate cannot request one; a recount happens only by court order. A candidate may examine the ballot boxes within 12 days after certification, with three days' written notice. The state's election handbook describes general-election contests only for county offices, and election lawyers quoted by Mississippi Today and NBC say state law offers no way to contest a U.S. Senate general election. No court has decided that question, and both campaigns have lawyers watching the count.

What Makes Mississippi's Race Different

Colom is the district attorney for Lowndes, Oktibbeha, Clay and Noxubee counties. President Joe Biden nominated him to a federal judgeship in 2022, and in April 2023 Hyde-Smith announced she would not support the nomination, which stalled it. If he wins, Colom would be the first Black senator from Mississippi since Reconstruction, when the state legislature chose Hiram Revels and Blanche Bruce.

No Democrat has won a Senate race in Mississippi since John Stennis in 1982, and Hyde-Smith's seat has been in Republican hands since James Eastland resigned it in December 1978. Trump carried Mississippi by more than 22 points in 2024. Pinkins, who was the Democratic nominee against Sen. Roger Wicker that year, left the party in July 2025 and ran as an independent; his 19,934 votes are many times the margin between the two leaders.

What Each Outcome Means

Neither race decides control of the Senate, so the stakes are the size of the Democratic majority and who speaks for each state inside it. In January, Democrats take every committee and subcommittee gavel. Sullivan now chairs the Armed Services subcommittee on readiness and the Commerce subcommittee on the Coast Guard, maritime and fisheries; Hyde-Smith chairs the Agriculture subcommittee on commodities and the Appropriations subcommittee on transportation and housing. Both lose those gavels in January whether or not they win.

In Alaska, the campaign centered on oil and gas development on federal land, salmon bycatch by the Bering Sea pollock fleet, the military buildup Sullivan has championed, and Medicaid cuts the state expects to cost more than 9,000 Alaskans their coverage. A Peltola win would give Alaska its first Democratic senator since Mark Begich left office in January 2015, serving beside Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski.

In Mississippi, the campaign turned on the cost of living, Medicaid cuts and rural hospitals. A Colom win would put a Democrat in the majority beside Wicker, a Republican, and would break a hold on the seat that has lasted 47 years.