Claim Checkelectionsstates
Polls Had Talarico Ahead. This 'Projection' Had Paxton Winning.
An election account called the Texas Senate race for Paxton at 4 p.m. Central. Of 27 polls since Oct. 13, Talarico led 22.
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The ClaimMisleading
Election Time: "CLOSE RACE: Ken Paxton is projected to be victorious against James Talarico in the Texas Senate election."
Election Time on X, November 3, 2026, 5:00 p.m. EST ยท Original
The TruthThe polls had Talarico ahead: 270toWin's average of the last 13 put him up 3.2 points. The post's 54.3% came from one forecast, while another forecast published the same day gave Talarico a 69.7% chance. It went up three hours before Texas polls closed.
The Text"The model has Talarico ahead by 3.7 points, winning 69.7 percent of 2,000 simulated elections."
Source: Texas Senate Forecast 2026: James Talarico vs Ken Paxton, Updated November 3, 2026. Retrieved 2026-11-03.